Haugesund 0-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Brann travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 4W 1D 5L at Haugesund Sparebank Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brann are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Haugesund, 3 for Brann and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Brann trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 49% versus Brann 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 51% | Brann 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.95 xG and Brann 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.590 / defence 0.793 | Brann attack 1.341 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.229. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.590 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Haugesund's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Haugesund games / 53 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Brann 2.22. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 30% | Brann 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Haugesund 0.95 / Brann 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.590 / def 0.793 | Brann attack 1.341 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Brann (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Brann xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Brann kick off?
Haugesund vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Haugesund 0 - 1 Brann.
Where is Haugesund vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Brann part of?
Haugesund vs Brann is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 27% chance of winning, Brann a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Haugesund and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
Record (7 meetings): Haugesund 3W | Draws 1 | Brann 3W.
What form are Haugesund and Brann in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Brann (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.59) and Brann's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
27%
3.69
28%
3.56
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.26
1.31
Brann xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.31 for Brann, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 15W 11D 27L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 31W 11D 11L from 53 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (11W 3D 12L).
On the road, Brann have gone 12W 7D 7L from 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Brann in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 11D 27L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Brann have gone 31W 11D 11L in their last 53 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.38 PPG; Brann away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Brann in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Brann have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 46%, Brann 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Haugesund) and 54% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Brann in 31%; Haugesund have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Haugesund's recent matches and 58% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Haugesund's recent games and 54% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Brann tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Brann in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.95 xG and Brann 1.31 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.59 / defence 0.79 against Brann attack 1.34 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 51%, Brann 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.