Ham-Kam 1-0 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 8 as Ham-Kam welcome Valerenga to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 5W 2D 3L at Briskeby Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Valerenga's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ham-Kam at 1.60 PPG versus Valerenga's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ham-Kam, 2 for Valerenga and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Valerenga trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 55% and Valerenga 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 62% | Valerenga 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.16 xG and Valerenga 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.146 / defence 1.120 | Valerenga attack 1.040 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.177. Data: 36 Ham-Kam games / 36 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Valerenga 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Ham-Kam 2.16 / Valerenga 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.146 / def 1.120 | Valerenga attack 1.040 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Valerenga xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Ham-Kam 1 - 0 Valerenga.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga part of?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 55% chance of winning, Valerenga a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ham-Kam and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Record (6 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 3 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 1.15x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.69
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.54
1.37
Valerenga xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
11%
8.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
3%
36.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.37 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ham-Kam come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 7D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (12W 4D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.17 PPG, Valerenga on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ham-Kam's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Valerenga have taken 0.86 points per game from 14 outings (4W 0D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.59 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 12W 4D 13L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Valerenga away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.50 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ham-Kam have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 71%, Valerenga 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ham-Kam and 57% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ham-Kam's games and 57% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ham-Kam's matches and 57% of Valerenga's.
Do Ham-Kam and Valerenga tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Valerenga 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Valerenga 1-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.16 xG and Valerenga 1.37 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Valerenga attack 1.04 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 62%, Valerenga 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.17 PPG, Valerenga 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.