Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rosenborg are 1.40 PPG clear of Ham-Kam in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Rosenborg, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–4 with Rosenborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rosenborg have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 58% versus Rosenborg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 68% | Rosenborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.24 xG and Rosenborg 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.784 / defence 1.263 | Rosenborg attack 1.195 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.528. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Ham-Kam games / 53 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 18% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 60%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 60% | Rosenborg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 18% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Ham-Kam 1.24 / Rosenborg 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.784 / def 1.263 | Rosenborg attack 1.195 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Rosenborg xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg part of?
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 18% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ham-Kam and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
Record (9 meetings): Ham-Kam 2W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 6W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.78) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.20x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.31.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
18%
5.59
22%
4.50
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.54
2.31
Rosenborg xG
5.59
18%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
10%
10.03
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
2%
56.06
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 2.31 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 17W 12D 24L from 53 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 18L across 53 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.49 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 12W 5D 9L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 8W 4D 14L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.66 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 22W 13D 18L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Rosenborg away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.58 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
6
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Rosenborg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Rosenborg 4-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 69%, Rosenborg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Ham-Kam and 62% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 31%; Rosenborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 38% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Ham-Kam's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Ham-Kam and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.