Ham-Kam vs Molde – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Molde (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Molde are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Molde in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Molde hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–4 with Molde winning.
It is worth noting that Molde have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Molde — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 58% versus Molde 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 67% | Molde 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.81 xG and Molde 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.938 / defence 1.150 | Molde attack 1.218 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Ham-Kam games / 48 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 36% | Draw 21% | Molde 43%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.78 | Draw 4.76 | Molde 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Molde 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 36% | Draw 21% | Molde 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Ham-Kam 1.81 / Molde 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.938 / def 1.150 | Molde attack 1.218 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Molde (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Molde xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Molde kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Molde is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Molde part of?
Ham-Kam vs Molde is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 36% chance of winning, Molde a 43% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Ham-Kam and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Record (9 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 2 | Molde 6W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.94x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.22x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
36%
2.79
21%
4.68
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.80
1.99
Molde xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.61
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
5%
20.42
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.99 for Molde, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 16W 12D 20L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde's form line: 21W 6D 21L from 48 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.44 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (12W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Ham-Kam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Molde have gone 7W 4D 13L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 1.71 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Molde have gone 21W 6D 21L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Molde away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.71 PPG; Molde away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Molde have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Molde 4-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 71%, Molde 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ham-Kam and 62% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ham-Kam's games and 54% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ham-Kam's matches and 62% of Molde's.
Do Ham-Kam and Molde tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Molde in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.