Brann 1-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host Mjondalen at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Brann) versus 1.00 (Mjondalen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Brann have won 0, Mjondalen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2020, ended 0–2 with Mjondalen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 68% versus Mjondalen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 56% | Mjondalen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.24 xG and Mjondalen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.809 / defence 1.221 | Mjondalen attack 0.959 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.139. Data: 43 Brann games / 40 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 33% | Draw 31% | Mjondalen 37%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Mjondalen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Mjondalen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 33% | Draw 31% | Mjondalen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Brann 1.24 / Mjondalen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.809 / def 1.221 | Mjondalen attack 0.959 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mjondalen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Mjondalen kick off?
Brann vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Mjondalen?
Brann 1 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Brann vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Mjondalen part of?
Brann vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 33% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Brann and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 2W.
What form are Brann and Mjondalen in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.81x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
33%
3.08
31%
3.26
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Brann xG
Total xG
2.58
1.33
Mjondalen xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Brann and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Brann and 1.33 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann's recent record stands at 8W 12D 21L from 41 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 23L across 41 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 0.88 PPG, Mjondalen on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brann have managed 4W 7D 9L from 20 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 3W 4D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 8W 12D 21L in their last 41 games (0.88 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 7D 23L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Mjondalen away?
Brann's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 0.95 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Brann's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Brann
2
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Brann have won 0, Mjondalen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 85%, Mjondalen at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brann) and 45% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Brann's games and 50% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Brann's recent games and 45% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Mjondalen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Mjondalen finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.24 xG and Mjondalen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Mjondalen attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 33% | Draw 31% | Mjondalen 37%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 56%, Mjondalen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 0.88 PPG, Mjondalen 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.