Brann 2-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 4W 2D 0L from 6 Eliteserien appearances (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Brann's 1.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Ham-Kam's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 67% versus Ham-Kam 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 75% | Ham-Kam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 3.08 xG and Ham-Kam 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.150 / defence 0.987 | Ham-Kam attack 0.800 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.258. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.561 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Brann games / 41 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 78% | Draw 13% | Ham-Kam 9%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.28 | Draw 7.69 | Ham-Kam 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Brann (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (3.08 / 0.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Brann 67% | Ham-Kam 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 78% | Draw 13% | Ham-Kam 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 60% | xG Brann 3.08 / Ham-Kam 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.150 / def 0.987 | Ham-Kam attack 0.800 / def 1.561 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Brann (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.08
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ham-Kam xG
60%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Brann vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Brann 2 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Brann vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Ham-Kam part of?
Brann vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 78% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Brann and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Ham-Kam in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.08. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.80x) against Brann's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 12/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
78%
1.28
13%
7.72
9%
11.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.08
Brann xG
Total xG
4.07
0.99
Ham-Kam xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.72
13%
Draw
11.61
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
5%
21.76
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 3.08 expected goals for Brann and 0.99 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 3D 3L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 0.58 PPG from 12 outings (2W 1D 9L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.00 points per game from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 0.92 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Ham-Kam away?
Brann's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.33 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Brann have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-5 on 6 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Brann
1
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Ham-Kam?
From 7 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-5 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Ham-Kam?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 67%, Ham-Kam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Brann and 100% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ham-Kam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brann's games and 50% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Brann's matches and 100% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Brann and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Ham-Kam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Ham-Kam 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 3.08 xG and Ham-Kam 0.99 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Brann fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Ham-Kam attack 0.80 / defence 1.56, drawn from 12/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 78% | Draw 13% | Ham-Kam 9%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 75%, Ham-Kam 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.58. That form edge translated into the three points. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.