Brann 3-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Fredrikstad meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Fredrikstad have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brann lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Brann winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 62% versus Fredrikstad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 68% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.68 xG and Fredrikstad 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.851 / defence 1.031 | Fredrikstad attack 0.883 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.220. Fredrikstad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Brann games / 36 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 49% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 24%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Fredrikstad 4.17. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 49% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Brann 1.68 / Fredrikstad 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.851 / def 1.031 | Fredrikstad attack 0.883 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Brann (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Fredrikstad xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Brann vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Brann 3 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Brann vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Fredrikstad part of?
Brann vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 49% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Brann and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Fredrikstad?
Record (4 meetings): Brann 2W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 2W.
What form are Brann and Fredrikstad in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.85x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.88x) against Brann's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.79
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Brann xG
Total xG
2.79
1.11
Fredrikstad xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Brann and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Brann and 1.11 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Brann have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 34W 13D 13L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Fredrikstad's form line: 25W 18D 17L from 60 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for Brann against 1.55 for Fredrikstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 2.10 PPG from 30 outings (19W 6D 5L).
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Fredrikstad away?
Brann's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.10 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Brann or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 0-4 on 18 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Brann
0
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Brann have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Brann 3-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Fredrikstad?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 63%, Fredrikstad 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Brann) and 40% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 40%; Fredrikstad in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Brann's recent matches and 37% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Brann's recent games and 40% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Fredrikstad 3-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.68 xG and Fredrikstad 1.11 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Fredrikstad attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 49% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 24%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 68%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.92 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.