Brann 0-2 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Fredrikstad meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.90 xG and Fredrikstad 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.170 / defence 0.988 | Fredrikstad attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.308. Data: 31 Brann games / 1 Fredrikstad games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Brann 56% | Draw 22% | Fredrikstad 22%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Fredrikstad 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Brann (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 56% | Draw 22% | Fredrikstad 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Brann 1.90 / Fredrikstad 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.170 / def 0.988 | Fredrikstad attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Brann (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Fredrikstad xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Brann vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Brann 0 - 2 Fredrikstad.
Where is Brann vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Fredrikstad part of?
Brann vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 56% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brann and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Fredrikstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Fredrikstad in?
Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Brann home split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.17x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.85x) against Brann's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.48
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Brann xG
Total xG
2.99
1.10
Fredrikstad xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
3%
30.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Brann and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Brann and 1.10 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 0-4 on 18 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Brann
0
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Brann have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Brann 3-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Fredrikstad?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Brann 0-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.90 xG and Fredrikstad 1.10 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brann fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Fredrikstad attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Brann 56% | Draw 22% | Fredrikstad 22%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Fredrikstad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.