Brann vs Aalesund – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brann (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Brann's favour (1.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brann have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Aalesund in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Brann 3W, Aalesund 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Aalesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 75% and Aalesund 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 85% | Aalesund 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.19 xG and Aalesund 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.086 / defence 1.018 | Aalesund attack 0.787 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 Brann games / 18 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 61% | Draw 20% | Aalesund 19%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Aalesund 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Brann (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Aalesund 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 61% | Draw 20% | Aalesund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Brann 2.19 / Aalesund 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.086 / def 1.018 | Aalesund attack 0.787 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Brann (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Aalesund xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Aalesund kick off?
Brann vs Aalesund is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Aalesund part of?
Brann vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 61% chance of winning, Aalesund a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Brann and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Aalesund?
Record (5 meetings): Brann 3W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Brann and Aalesund in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.79x) against Brann's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.99
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Brann xG
Total xG
3.33
1.14
Aalesund xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
11%
8.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
2%
47.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Brann and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Brann and 1.14 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Brann have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 9W 2D 9L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund's form line: 3W 9D 8L from 20 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (5W 0D 4L).
On the road, Aalesund have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Aalesund in 80%.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 9W 2D 9L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 3W 9D 8L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Aalesund away?
Brann's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.67 PPG; Aalesund away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 5-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Brann
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Aalesund?
From 5 meetings on record, Brann have won 3, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Aalesund 2-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Aalesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Brann, 67% for Aalesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Brann and 56% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Brann's games and 67% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Brann's matches and 56% of Aalesund's.
Do Brann and Aalesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.