Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Sandefjord travel to Aspmyra Stadion to take on Bodo/Glimt. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 9W 0D 1L at Aspmyra Stadion — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 8 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 3–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 48% versus Sandefjord 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Sandefjord 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.45 xG and Sandefjord 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.513 / defence 0.672 | Sandefjord attack 0.903 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.513 — their λ of 2.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.672 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bodo/Glimt games / 48 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 72% | Draw 17% | Sandefjord 11%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Sandefjord 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 20% | Sandefjord 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 72% | Draw 17% | Sandefjord 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 53% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.45 / Sandefjord 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.513 / def 0.672 | Sandefjord attack 0.903 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sandefjord xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 72% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Record (10 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 8W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.51x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
72%
1.39
17%
6.01
11%
8.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.31
0.86
Sandefjord xG
1.39
72%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
8.94
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
9%
11.60
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
1%
103.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.86 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 48 games, going 36W 6D 6L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.40 PPG from 48 outings (20W 7D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 20W 1D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (7W 2D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.46 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 6D 6L in their last 48 games (2.38 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 20W 7D 21L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sandefjord away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.54 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 33%, Sandefjord 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 71% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 75% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 71% of Sandefjord's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.