Bodo/Glimt 1-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 80%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Bodo/Glimt welcome ODD Ballklubb to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 0–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 62% versus ODD Ballklubb 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 77% | ODD Ballklubb 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.11 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.350 / defence 0.880 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.812 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.847 / away 1.267. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 3.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. ODD Ballklubb bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Bodo/Glimt games / 47 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 80% | Draw 14% | ODD Ballklubb 7%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.25 | Draw 7.14 | ODD Ballklubb 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 40% | ODD Ballklubb 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 80% | Draw 14% | ODD Ballklubb 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 58% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.11 / ODD Ballklubb 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.350 / def 0.880 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.812 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.847 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.11
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.91
ODD Ballklubb xG
58%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt 1 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 80% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.11. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
80%
1.25
14%
7.33
7%
15.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.11
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.02
0.91
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.33
14%
Draw
15.13
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
4%
22.49
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 3.11 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.91 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 47 games, going 36W 7D 4L for 2.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.38 PPG from 47 outings (19W 8D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 21W 2D 1L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.96 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.62 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 7D 4L in their last 47 games (2.45 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 19W 8D 20L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.71 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, ODD Ballklubb 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Bodo/Glimt and 58% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 46% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 58% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 1-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.11 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.91 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.35 / defence 0.88 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.81 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 80% | Draw 14% | ODD Ballklubb 7%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 77%, ODD Ballklubb 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.