Bodo/Glimt 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 8 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Kristiansund BK to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 15 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 0D 0L from 7 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 4.29 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bodo/Glimt have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 4D 1L from 7 Eliteserien matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.29 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.57 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.43. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bodo/Glimt register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Kristiansund BK in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 86%.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 71% and Kristiansund BK 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 100% | Kristiansund BK 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.66 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.832 / defence 0.937 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.903 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.593. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.832 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 Bodo/Glimt games / 7 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 17% | Kristiansund BK 18%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | Kristiansund BK 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.66 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Kristiansund BK 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 17% | Kristiansund BK 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 69% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.66 / Kristiansund BK 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.832 / def 0.937 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.903 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.593 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Kristiansund BK xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 15 July 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 65% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 18% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-0D-0L in 7 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.83x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.66. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
65%
1.53
17%
5.84
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.00
1.35
Kristiansund BK xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
7%
14.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
1%
81.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.35 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 7 games, going 7W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 4.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 2.29 scored and 1.57 conceded. Kristiansund BK's attacking output running into Bodo/Glimt's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Early Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 0D 0L in their last 7 games (3.00 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bodo/Glimt at 67%, Kristiansund BK at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bodo/Glimt and 100% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 100% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 100% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Kristiansund BK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.66 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.83 / defence 0.94 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 17% | Kristiansund BK 18%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 93% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 100%, Kristiansund BK 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 4.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.