Bodo/Glimt 7-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Kristiansund BK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 21 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Kristiansund BK to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 7 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Kristiansund BK, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 54% versus Kristiansund BK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 64% | Kristiansund BK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.35 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.315 / defence 0.824 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.848 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.358. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Bodo/Glimt games / 50 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 68% | Draw 19% | Kristiansund BK 13%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Kristiansund BK 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 40% | Kristiansund BK 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 68% | Draw 19% | Kristiansund BK 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.35 / Kristiansund BK 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.315 / def 0.824 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.848 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Kristiansund BK xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 12 September 2025 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Bodo/Glimt 7 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 68% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Record (8 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 7W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.32
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.29
0.95
Kristiansund BK xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
10%
10.43
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
1%
79.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.95 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 50 games, going 32W 11D 7L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.16 PPG from 50 outings (14W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 17W 5D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 11D 7L in their last 50 games (2.14 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 14W 16D 20L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.24 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 52%, Kristiansund BK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bodo/Glimt and 48% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 52% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 48% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 7-1 hammering of Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Kristiansund BK 7-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.35 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.95 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.31 / defence 0.82 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.85 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 68% | Draw 19% | Kristiansund BK 13%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 64%, Kristiansund BK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.84 average — above their attacking norm. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.