Bodo/Glimt 5-0 jerv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs jerv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus jerv in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 23 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
jerv (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
jerv's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Bodo/Glimt's favour (1.80 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
jerv half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 67% versus jerv 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 60% | jerv 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.44 xG and jerv 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.273 / defence 0.849 | jerv attack 0.793 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.351. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Bodo/Glimt games / 14 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 12%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | jerv 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 70% | jerv 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 55% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.44 / jerv 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.273 / def 0.849 | jerv attack 0.793 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.91
jerv xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs jerv kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs jerv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs jerv?
Bodo/Glimt 5 - 0 jerv.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs jerv part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs jerv is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 71% chance of winning, jerv a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and jerv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and jerv in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. jerv (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.27x the league average against jerv's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — jerv's attack (0.79x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.92
12%
8.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.35
0.91
jerv xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.92
17%
Draw
8.23
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
9%
11.44
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
1%
94.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.91 for jerv, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 8W 4D 3L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
jerv's form line: 3W 3D 9L from 15 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against jerv.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (3W 4D 0L).
On the road, jerv have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 0.93 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and jerv in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while jerv have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or jerv away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 1.86 PPG; jerv away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bodo/Glimt
0
Draws
0
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 2, jerv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2022, when jerv 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and jerv?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
jerv see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Bodo/Glimt, 57% for jerv — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Bodo/Glimt and 71% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: jerv in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play jerv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 57% of jerv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 71% of jerv's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and jerv tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, jerv in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 5-0 hammering of jerv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat jerv 5-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.44 xG and jerv 0.91 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. jerv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.27 / defence 0.85 against jerv attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 12%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 60%, jerv 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
jerv's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. jerv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.