Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 5D 2L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.40 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (2.40 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ham-Kam in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Ham-Kam and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 67% and Ham-Kam 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 67% | Ham-Kam 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.51 xG and Ham-Kam 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.605 / defence 0.756 | Ham-Kam attack 0.862 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.364. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.605 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bodo/Glimt games / 18 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 16% | Ham-Kam 11%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Ham-Kam 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Ham-Kam 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 16% | Ham-Kam 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 54% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.51 / Ham-Kam 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.605 / def 0.756 | Ham-Kam attack 0.862 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Ham-Kam xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 73% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.60x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.51. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.86x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
73%
1.38
16%
6.20
11%
8.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.40
0.89
Ham-Kam xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.20
16%
Draw
8.93
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
8%
12.30
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
1%
109.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.89 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 4D 3L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (3W 10D 5L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 5W 3D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 11W 4D 3L in their last 18 games (2.06 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 3W 10D 5L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Ham-Kam away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.25 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 3-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Bodo/Glimt, 100% for Ham-Kam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Bodo/Glimt) and 50% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 100% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 50% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.51 xG and Ham-Kam 0.89 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.60 / defence 0.76 against Ham-Kam attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 16% | Ham-Kam 11%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 67%, Ham-Kam 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.