Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 26 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.80 PPG lead over Aalesund (2.20 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bodo/Glimt 2W, Aalesund 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2020, ended 7–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 47% versus Aalesund 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 50% | Aalesund 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.74 xG and Aalesund 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.160 / defence 0.954 | Aalesund attack 0.874 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.477. Data: 40 Bodo/Glimt games / 11 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 49% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 27%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Aalesund 3.70. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Aalesund 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 49% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.74 / Aalesund 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.160 / def 0.954 | Aalesund attack 0.874 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Aalesund xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 49% chance of winning, Aalesund a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
Record (2 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.87x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 40/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.16
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.97
1.23
Aalesund xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
5%
21.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.23 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 18W 9D 3L from 30 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 23L across 30 games — 0.37 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. Aalesund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 10W 4D 1L from 15 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aalesund's away record stands at 1W 2D 12L across 15 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.00 scored and 2.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 67%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Aalesund
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 9D 3L in their last 30 games (2.10 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 23L in their last 30 (0.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Aalesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.27 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Aalesund in 3%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 on 8 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
0
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Aalesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 47%, Aalesund 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Bodo/Glimt and 73% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Aalesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 53% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 73% of Aalesund's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Aalesund 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.74 xG and Aalesund 1.23 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Aalesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Aalesund attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 49% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 27%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 50%, Aalesund 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.