Aalesund 1-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 25 as Aalesund welcome Valerenga to Color Line Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Valerenga are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Aalesund, 0 for Valerenga and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 67% and Valerenga 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 79% | Valerenga 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 0.94 xG and Valerenga 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.701 / defence 1.708 | Valerenga attack 0.861 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.351. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Aalesund games / 24 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 17% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 61%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Valerenga 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 80% | Valerenga 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 17% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Aalesund 0.94 / Valerenga 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.701 / def 1.708 | Valerenga attack 0.861 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Valerenga xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Aalesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 November 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Aalesund 1 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Aalesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Valerenga part of?
Aalesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 17% chance of winning, Valerenga a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aalesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Aalesund and Valerenga in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Valerenga (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.70) and Valerenga's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
17%
5.95
22%
4.54
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.93
1.99
Valerenga xG
5.95
17%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
2%
43.35
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.99 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aalesund's recent record stands at 2W 4D 18L from 24 games, a 0.42 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 5L across 24 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 1W 2D 9L from 12 games — 0.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 5W 2D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aalesund are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.96 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.71 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Valerenga in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 2W 4D 18L in their last 24 games (0.42 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 13W 6D 5L in their last 24 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.42 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Valerenga in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aalesund and Valerenga runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2026, when Valerenga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Aalesund
3
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Valerenga?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Valerenga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2026, when Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aalesund at 83%, Valerenga at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for Aalesund and 50% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Aalesund's games and 50% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Aalesund's matches and 50% of Valerenga's.
Do Aalesund and Valerenga tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aalesund and Valerenga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Aalesund and Valerenga drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 0.94 xG and Valerenga 1.99 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Valerenga landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.70 / defence 1.71 against Valerenga attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 17% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 61%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 79%, Valerenga 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.