Aalesund vs Rosenborg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aalesund face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Rosenborg meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aalesund have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Aalesund lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Aalesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 80% versus Rosenborg 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 65% | Rosenborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.99 xG and Rosenborg 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 1.114 / defence 1.643 | Rosenborg attack 1.048 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 18 Aalesund games / 48 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 32% | Draw 19% | Rosenborg 49%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.12 | Draw 5.26 | Rosenborg 2.04. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 2.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 79% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 100% | Rosenborg 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 32% | Draw 19% | Rosenborg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 79% | xG Aalesund 1.99 / Rosenborg 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 1.114 / def 1.643 | Rosenborg attack 1.048 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
2.45
Rosenborg xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Aalesund vs Rosenborg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Color Line Stadion.
Where is Aalesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Aalesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 32% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 49% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Aalesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
Record (7 meetings): Aalesund 2W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 4W.
What form are Aalesund and Rosenborg in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 1.11x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.05x) against Aalesund's defence (1.64x) — and the away total comes out at 2.45.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (7.0%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
32%
3.12
19%
5.19
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
5.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Aalesund xG
Total xG
4.44
2.45
Rosenborg xG
3.12
32%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.75
Clean Sheet
9%
11.55
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
3%
36.02
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Aalesund and 2.45 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund's recent record stands at 3W 9D 8L from 20 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 9L across 20 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 1W 6D 3L from 10 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 2W 1D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 3W 9D 8L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 8W 3D 9L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Aalesund's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.90 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Aalesund
1
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 2, Rosenborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 100%, Rosenborg 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Aalesund and 40% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 20% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Aalesund's matches and 40% of Rosenborg's.
Do Aalesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.