Aalesund 1-3 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aalesund at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lillestrom make the trip to Color Line Stadion to face Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Aalesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lillestrom (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lillestrom haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lillestrom's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Aalesund's 1.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Aalesund, 2 for Lillestrom and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.94 xG and Lillestrom 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.985 / away 1.320. Data: 0 Aalesund games / 0 Lillestrom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Aalesund 53% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 25%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Lillestrom 4.00. Aalesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aalesund are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aalesund if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 53% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Aalesund 1.94 / Lillestrom 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.985 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Lillestrom xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Lillestrom kick off?
Aalesund vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Aalesund 1 - 3 Lillestrom.
Where is Aalesund vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Lillestrom part of?
Aalesund vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 53% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Aalesund and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
Record (4 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Lillestrom in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.85x) against Aalesund's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.53
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.23
1.29
Lillestrom xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
4%
27.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.29 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Aalesund have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aalesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lillestrom's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. Lillestrom haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Aalesund are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lillestrom.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aalesund are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Early Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Aalesund or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 5-1 on 19 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Aalesund
1
Draws
3
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
From 5 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Lillestrom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Aalesund 1-3 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Aalesund's recent matches and 50% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Aalesund's matches and 100% of Lillestrom's.
Do Aalesund and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Aalesund 1-3 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.94 xG and Lillestrom 1.29 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Aalesund fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lillestrom outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 53% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 25%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lillestrom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 50%, Lillestrom 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Aalesund arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Lillestrom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aalesund managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.