Willem II 2-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Relegation Round sees VVV Venlo travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VVV Venlo — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.40 (VVV Venlo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Willem II, 1 for VVV Venlo and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 2–3 with VVV Venlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
VVV Venlo trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 43% versus VVV Venlo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 51% | VVV Venlo 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.94 xG and VVV Venlo 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.004 / defence 0.989 | VVV Venlo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Data: 34 Willem II games / 0 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 56% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 19%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | VVV Venlo 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Willem II 30% | VVV Venlo 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 56% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Willem II 1.94 / VVV Venlo 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.004 / def 0.989 | VVV Venlo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Willem II (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.08
VVV Venlo xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Willem II vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Willem II 2 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is Willem II vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs VVV Venlo part of?
Willem II vs VVV Venlo is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 56% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Willem II and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are Willem II and VVV Venlo in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Willem II's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.98
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.03
1.08
VVV Venlo xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
3%
36.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Willem II and 1.08 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 9W 6D 20L from 35 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 16L across 35 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours VVV Venlo by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 6W 2D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.37 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 9W 6D 20L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 14W 5D 16L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or VVV Venlo away?
Willem II's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.41 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and VVV Venlo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Willem II's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
2
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Willem II 2-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 35%, VVV Venlo 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Willem II) and 65% (VVV Venlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 41% of games; VVV Venlo in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Willem II's recent matches and 41% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Willem II's matches and 65% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Willem II and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and VVV Venlo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Relegation Round, as Willem II and VVV Venlo drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.94 xG and VVV Venlo 1.08 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against VVV Venlo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 56% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 19%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 51%, VVV Venlo 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VVV Venlo arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.