Willem II 0-1 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Twente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Twente make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Koning Willem II Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Twente (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Twente have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Twente are 0.60 PPG clear of Willem II in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Twente winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Twente — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 59% versus Twente 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Twente 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.20 xG and Twente 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.753 / defence 0.894 | Twente attack 1.282 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.240. Willem II's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Twente have an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Willem II games / 44 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 32% | Draw 26% | Twente 42%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Twente 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Twente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 40% | Twente 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 32% | Draw 26% | Twente 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Willem II 1.20 / Twente 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.753 / def 0.894 | Twente attack 1.282 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Twente (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Twente xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Twente kick off?
Willem II vs Twente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Twente?
Willem II 0 - 1 Twente.
Where is Willem II vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Twente part of?
Willem II vs Twente is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 32% chance of winning, Twente a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Willem II and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Twente?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | Twente 1W.
What form are Willem II and Twente in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Twente (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Willem II vs Twente?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.75x the league average against Twente's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Twente's attack (1.28x) against Willem II's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
32%
3.13
26%
3.84
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.63
1.42
Twente xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
8%
12.99
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Willem II and 1.42 for Twente, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 25W 11D 8L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Twente's form line: 26W 9D 9L from 44 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Willem II against 1.98 for Twente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
On the road, Twente have gone 9W 6D 7L from 22 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Twente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 2.05 scored and 1.02 conceded. Twente's attacking output running into Willem II's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Twente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Twente in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 25W 11D 8L in their last 44 games (1.95 PPG), while Twente have gone 26W 9D 9L in their last 44 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Twente away?
Willem II's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.23 PPG; Twente away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Willem II or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Twente in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Twente have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Twente won 6-2 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
1
Draws
3
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Twente?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Twente have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Twente 6-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 64%, Twente 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Willem II and 73% for Twente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Willem II's games and 64% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Willem II's matches and 73% of Twente's.
Do Willem II and Twente tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Twente in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Twente edge out Willem II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Willem II 0-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.20 xG and Twente 1.42 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Willem II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Twente attack 1.28 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 32% | Draw 26% | Twente 42%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Twente 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Twente's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.95 PPG, Twente 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Twente win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Twente (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.