Willem II 1-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 36%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Willem II vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Willem II's favour (1.50 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Willem II have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, PEC Zwolle in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.15 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.772 / defence 1.505 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.707 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.092. Willem II's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Willem II games / 2 PEC Zwolle games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Willem II 35% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 36%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | PEC Zwolle 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 35% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Willem II 1.15 / PEC Zwolle 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.772 / def 1.505 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.707 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.16
PEC Zwolle xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Willem II 1 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 35% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Willem II and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and PEC Zwolle in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.77) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.71x) against Willem II's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
35%
2.85
29%
3.42
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.31
1.16
PEC Zwolle xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Willem II and 1.16 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Willem II come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 0%.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Willem II or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Willem II
1
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Willem II's recent matches and 0% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Willem II's recent games and 0% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat PEC Zwolle 1-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.15 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.77 / defence 1.50 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 35% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 36%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 100%, PEC Zwolle 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.