Waalwijk 1-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Willem II at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II have collected 2.00 PPG across 5 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 80% versus Willem II 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 80% | Willem II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 0.89 xG and Willem II 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.826 / defence 1.101 | Willem II attack 0.836 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.332. Data: 5 Waalwijk games / 5 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 27% | Draw 29% | Willem II 44%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Willem II 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 80% | Willem II 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 27% | Draw 29% | Willem II 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Waalwijk 0.89 / Willem II 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.826 / def 1.101 | Willem II attack 0.836 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Willem II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Willem II xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Willem II kick off?
Waalwijk vs Willem II kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Waalwijk vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Willem II part of?
Waalwijk vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 27% chance of winning, Willem II a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Waalwijk and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and Willem II in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Willem II (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.83x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.84x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
27%
3.74
29%
3.42
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.11
1.23
Willem II xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.8 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.23 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Willem II in 20%.
Defensively: Willem II in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Willem II in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Willem II have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Waalwijk or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Willem II in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
1
Draws
6
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Willem II have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 80%, Willem II 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Waalwijk and 60% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 60%; Willem II in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 20% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Waalwijk's matches and 60% of Willem II's.
Do Waalwijk and Willem II tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Willem II in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 0.89 xG and Willem II 1.23 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Willem II attack 0.84 / defence 0.86, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 27% | Draw 29% | Willem II 44%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 80%, Willem II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Willem II scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.