Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 42%, yet in-form Heerenveen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waalwijk vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host Heerenveen at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Heerenveen's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 1, Heerenveen 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Heerenveen in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 57% versus Heerenveen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 60% | Heerenveen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.50 xG and Heerenveen 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.765 / defence 1.172 | Heerenveen attack 0.803 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.335. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heerenveen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Waalwijk games / 65 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 31%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Heerenveen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heerenveen (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Waalwijk 30% | Heerenveen 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Waalwijk 1.50 / Heerenveen 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.765 / def 1.172 | Heerenveen attack 0.803 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Heerenveen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Heerenveen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heerenveen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Waalwijk 3 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heerenveen part of?
Waalwijk vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 42% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Waalwijk and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heerenveen?
Record (7 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 4 | Heerenveen 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and Heerenveen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.77x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.62
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.75
1.26
Heerenveen xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.26 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 11W 15D 39L from 65 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 30L across 65 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heerenveen by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 7W 9D 16L from 32 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 6W 5D 21L across 32 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's season.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.42 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 11W 15D 39L in their last 65 games (0.74 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 21W 14D 30L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heerenveen away?
Waalwijk's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.94 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Heerenveen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
4
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heerenveen?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Heerenveen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 53%, Heerenveen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Waalwijk and 62% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 31% of games; Heerenveen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 50% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Waalwijk's matches and 62% of Heerenveen's.
Do Waalwijk and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Heerenveen 3-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.50 xG and Heerenveen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Heerenveen attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 42% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 31%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, Heerenveen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.