Waalwijk 0-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortuna Sittard make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fortuna Sittard are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waalwijk lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 55% versus Fortuna Sittard 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 62% | Fortuna Sittard 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.78 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.910 / defence 0.983 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.578 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.423. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Waalwijk games / 56 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 59% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 15%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Sittard (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Fortuna Sittard 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 59% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Waalwijk 1.78 / Fortuna Sittard 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.910 / def 0.983 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.578 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Fortuna Sittard xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Waalwijk 0 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 59% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (5 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.91) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.58x) against Waalwijk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.95
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.59
0.81
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
3%
38.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Waalwijk and 0.81 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 16W 11D 29L from 56 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 28L across 56 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.07 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 12W 5D 11L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 6W 5D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.09 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 16W 11D 29L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 12D 28L in their last 56 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.46 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Sittard have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
4
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Fortuna Sittard have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Waalwijk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 64%, Fortuna Sittard 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Waalwijk and 71% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Waalwijk's games and 54% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Waalwijk's matches and 71% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 0-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.78 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.81 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.58 / defence 1.26, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 59% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 15%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 62%, Fortuna Sittard 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.05 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.