Waalwijk 0-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Thursday 4 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 3D 5L at Mandemakers Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Waalwijk, 1.20 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Waalwijk 0W, Almere City FC 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Almere City FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 56% versus Almere City FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 59% | Almere City FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.38 xG and Almere City FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.825 / defence 0.992 | Almere City FC attack 0.751 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.334. Data: 61 Waalwijk games / 27 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 31% | Almere City FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Almere City FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Waalwijk 70% | Almere City FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 31% | Almere City FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Waalwijk 1.38 / Almere City FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.825 / def 0.992 | Almere City FC attack 0.751 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Almere City FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kick off?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 4 April 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Waalwijk 0 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC part of?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 44% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Waalwijk and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.82x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.75x) against Waalwijk's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.20
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.38
0.99
Almere City FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Waalwijk and 0.99 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 17W 13D 31L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC's form line: 26W 18D 17L from 61 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Almere City FC are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 14W 8D 8L from 30 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 13D 31L in their last 61 games (1.05 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 26W 18D 17L in their last 61 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.47 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 63%, Almere City FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Waalwijk) and 37% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Waalwijk's games and 47% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Waalwijk's recent games and 37% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Waalwijk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Waalwijk and Almere City FC drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.38 xG and Almere City FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Almere City FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Almere City FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 44% | Draw 31% | Almere City FC 25%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 59%, Almere City FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.