Vitesse 2-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Heracles make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vitesse have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 2W 2D 3L at GelreDome — 1.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.14 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GelreDome this season.
Heracles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Vitesse's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 53% versus Heracles 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 60% | Heracles 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.15 xG and Heracles 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.770 / defence 1.258 | Heracles attack 0.624 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.328. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Vitesse games / 15 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 38% | Draw 29% | Heracles 33%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Heracles 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vitesse 71% | Heracles 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 38% | Draw 29% | Heracles 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Vitesse 1.15 / Heracles 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.770 / def 1.258 | Heracles attack 0.624 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Heracles xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Heracles kick off?
Vitesse vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Heracles?
Vitesse 2 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Vitesse vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Heracles part of?
Vitesse vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 38% chance of winning, Heracles a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vitesse and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and Heracles in?
Vitesse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.77x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.62x) against Vitesse's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.43
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.19
1.04
Heracles xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.04 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitesse's recent record stands at 8W 2D 5L from 15 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 9L across 15 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitesse by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.73 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Heracles's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Heracles in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Heracles have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Heracles away?
Vitesse's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.14 PPG; Heracles away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
1
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Heracles?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Heracles have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Heracles 3-2 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Heracles?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 71%, Heracles 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Vitesse) and 43% (Heracles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 29% of games; Heracles in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Vitesse's games and 57% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vitesse's matches and 43% of Heracles's.
Do Vitesse and Heracles tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Heracles in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out Heracles 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Heracles 2-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.15 xG and Heracles 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Heracles attack 0.62 / defence 1.24, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 38% | Draw 29% | Heracles 33%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 60%, Heracles 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.