Utrecht 3-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and Waalwijk meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Utrecht's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht at Stadion Galgenwaard this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Utrecht. A 1.60 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.00 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utrecht lead 1W to 0W over the last 6 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 61% versus Waalwijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 49% | Waalwijk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 2.46 xG and Waalwijk 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.182 / defence 0.929 | Waalwijk attack 0.828 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.244. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Utrecht games / 41 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 69% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 12%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Waalwijk 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 60% | Waalwijk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 69% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 57% | xG Utrecht 2.46 / Waalwijk 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.182 / def 0.929 | Waalwijk attack 0.828 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Waalwijk xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Waalwijk kick off?
Utrecht vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Utrecht 3 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Utrecht vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Waalwijk part of?
Utrecht vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 69% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Utrecht and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Record (6 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 5 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Utrecht and Waalwijk in?
Utrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.18) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.83x) against Utrecht's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.35
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.42
0.96
Waalwijk xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
9%
11.73
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
1%
99.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.96 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht's recent record stands at 19W 12D 10L from 41 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 26L across 41 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 12W 5D 3L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 3W 2D 15L across 20 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 7W 8D 26L in their last 41 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Waalwijk away?
Utrecht's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.05 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-4 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utrecht
5
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Waalwijk have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 65%, Waalwijk 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Utrecht) and 55% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Utrecht's games and 45% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Utrecht's recent games and 55% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Waalwijk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Waalwijk 3-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.46 xG and Waalwijk 0.96 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.18 / defence 0.93 against Waalwijk attack 0.83 / defence 1.36, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 69% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 12%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 49%, Waalwijk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.