Utrecht 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utrecht host Sparta Rotterdam at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Conference League Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Utrecht — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Utrecht at 1.80 PPG versus Sparta Rotterdam's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Utrecht, 2 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Utrecht trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 54% versus Sparta Rotterdam 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 51% | Sparta Rotterdam 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.54 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.992 / defence 0.748 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.127 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.485. Utrecht's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Utrecht games / 68 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 42% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 29%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Conference League Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 42% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Utrecht 1.54 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.992 / def 0.748 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.127 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sparta Rotterdam xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Utrecht 3 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Conference League Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 42% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (5 meetings): Utrecht 3W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 2W.
What form are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Utrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (0.99) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.47
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.79
1.25
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.25 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Utrecht's recent record stands at 29W 20D 21L from 70 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 23L across 70 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.53 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 16W 10D 9L from 35 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 16W 7D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Utrecht are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.60 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 29W 20D 21L in their last 70 games (1.53 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 32W 15D 23L in their last 70 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Utrecht's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.66 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Utrecht or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Utrecht
1
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 5, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Utrecht 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 54%, Sparta Rotterdam 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Utrecht) and 57% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 34%; Sparta Rotterdam in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Utrecht's recent matches and 49% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Utrecht's recent games and 57% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Conference League Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.54 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.25 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.75 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 42% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 29%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 51%, Sparta Rotterdam 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.53 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.