Utrecht 1-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Utrecht's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Utrecht haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utrecht have posted 8W 0D 2L at Stadion Galgenwaard — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PEC Zwolle haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Utrecht. A 0.80 PPG lead over PEC Zwolle (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utrecht lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 5–1 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Utrecht — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 59% and PEC Zwolle 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 47% | PEC Zwolle 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 2.00 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.018 / defence 0.881 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.961 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.432. Data: 34 Utrecht games / 34 PEC Zwolle games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Utrecht 54% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 21%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 4.76. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 50% | PEC Zwolle 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 54% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Utrecht 2.00 / PEC Zwolle 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.018 / def 0.881 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.961 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.21
PEC Zwolle xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht 1 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 54% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Utrecht and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): Utrecht 2W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Utrecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.02) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.96x) against Utrecht's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.01
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.21
1.21
PEC Zwolle xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
3%
35.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.21 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht come into this having played 34 games, going 14W 11D 9L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. Utrecht haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.06 PPG from 34 outings (9W 9D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. PEC Zwolle haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Utrecht's home form reads 9W 5D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.32 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Pre-Season
PEC Zwolle
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 9L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Utrecht's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.88 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Utrecht
3
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Utrecht, 71% for PEC Zwolle — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Utrecht) and 71% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Utrecht's games and 71% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Utrecht's matches and 71% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Utrecht and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out PEC Zwolle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat PEC Zwolle 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.00 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.21 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 54% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 21%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 47%, PEC Zwolle 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.