PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waalwijk make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Waalwijk's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waalwijk's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.10 for Waalwijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2024, ended PEC Zwolle 1–1 Waalwijk — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 61% versus Waalwijk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 54% | Waalwijk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG and Waalwijk 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.905 / defence 0.982 | Waalwijk attack 0.997 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.340. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 60 games and Waalwijk's last 59.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.23 | Draw 4.05 | Waalwijk 3.27. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.63 / Waalwijk 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.905 / def 0.982 | Waalwijk attack 0.997 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Waalwijk xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 45% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (1.00x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 60 games and Waalwijk's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.05
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.95
1.31
Waalwijk xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.31 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 17D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.78 PPG from 59 outings (11W 13D 35L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.78 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 10W 5D 14L across their last 29 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.19 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Waalwijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 17D 27L in their last 59 games (1.05 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 11W 13D 35L in their last 59 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Waalwijk away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.21 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 59%, Waalwijk 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (PEC Zwolle) and 59% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of PEC Zwolle's games and 59% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 59% of Waalwijk's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 86% of Waalwijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Waalwijk 2-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG and Waalwijk 1.31 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 54%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.05 PPG, Waalwijk 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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