PEC Zwolle 1-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waalwijk make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAC³PARK Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.90 for Waalwijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Waalwijk in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Waalwijk and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 56% versus Waalwijk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | Waalwijk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.36 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.710 / defence 1.048 | Waalwijk attack 0.692 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.419. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 PEC Zwolle games / 45 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 42% | Draw 33% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Waalwijk 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: PEC Zwolle 30% | Waalwijk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 42% | Draw 33% | Waalwijk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.36 / Waalwijk 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.710 / def 1.048 | Waalwijk attack 0.692 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Waalwijk xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 42% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.69x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 12/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.07
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.39
1.03
Waalwijk xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.03 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 45 games, going 26W 6D 13L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.11 PPG from 45 outings (14W 8D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 15W 2D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.64 points per game from 22 outings (3W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.29 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 26W 6D 13L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 14W 8D 23L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Waalwijk away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 2.14 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.64 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 46%, Waalwijk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PEC Zwolle) and 59% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Waalwijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 46% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 59% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waalwijk defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.36 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.71 / defence 1.05 against Waalwijk attack 0.69 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 42% | Draw 33% | Waalwijk 26%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.