PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Groningen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host Groningen at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Groningen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PEC Zwolle 1.20 PPG, Groningen 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Groningen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Groningen in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 41% versus Groningen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PEC Zwolle 32% | Groningen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.08 xG and Groningen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.702 / defence 1.065 | Groningen attack 0.919 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.375. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 PEC Zwolle games / 22 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 30% | Draw 27% | Groningen 43%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 40% | Groningen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 30% | Draw 27% | Groningen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.08 / Groningen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.702 / def 1.065 | Groningen attack 0.919 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Groningen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Groningen xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Groningen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 30% chance of winning, Groningen a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 1 | Groningen 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Groningen in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.70x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
30%
3.34
27%
3.68
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.42
1.34
Groningen xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.34 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 4W 4D 14L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Groningen are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 0.82 PPG from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 4W 1D 6L from 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.14 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Groningen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 4D 14L in their last 22 games (0.73 PPG), while Groningen have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.82 PPG; Groningen away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Groningen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
5
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Groningen have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 36%, Groningen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (PEC Zwolle) and 73% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 46% of games; Groningen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 64% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 73% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Groningen tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Groningen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as PEC Zwolle and Groningen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.08 xG and Groningen 1.34 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.70 / defence 1.06 against Groningen attack 0.92 / defence 1.38, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 30% | Draw 27% | Groningen 43%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 32%, Groningen 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.