PEC Zwolle 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 49%, yet in-form PEC Zwolle provide a compelling counter-argument — this PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host FC Volendam at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PEC Zwolle at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, FC Volendam have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC Volendam have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, PEC Zwolle have won 1, FC Volendam 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended PEC Zwolle 5–0 FC Volendam — a PEC Zwolle win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 57% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 62% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.35 xG and FC Volendam 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.690 / defence 1.415 | FC Volendam attack 0.931 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.431. PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PEC Zwolle's projected output up. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 1.415 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Volendam's projected output up. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 24 games and FC Volendam's last 58.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 49%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.71 | Draw 4.23 | FC Volendam 2.03. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.89) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 25 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.35 / FC Volendam 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.690 / def 1.415 | FC Volendam attack 0.931 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.89
FC Volendam xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam part of?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 27% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.69x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 24 games and FC Volendam's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
27%
3.71
24%
4.23
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.24
1.89
FC Volendam xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
4%
24.41
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.89 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 30W 10D 18L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 13W 10D 35L from 58 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, PEC Zwolle are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Venue Form
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 4D 9L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 8D 19L from their last 29 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.16 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 10D 18L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 13W 10D 35L in their last 58 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or FC Volendam away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.79 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.48 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Dec 2023, when PEC Zwolle won FC Volendam 0-5 PEC Zwolle.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 52%, FC Volendam 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for PEC Zwolle and 69% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FC Volendam in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of PEC Zwolle's games and 66% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 69% of FC Volendam's.
Do PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 83% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.35 xG and FC Volendam 1.89 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Volendam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.69 / defence 1.42 against FC Volendam attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 49%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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