PEC Zwolle 2-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
AZ Alkmaar away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AZ Alkmaar are 0.90 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 39% versus AZ Alkmaar 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 29% | AZ Alkmaar 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.84 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.657 / defence 1.098 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.164 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.304. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 PEC Zwolle games / 28 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 57%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | AZ Alkmaar 1.75. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: PEC Zwolle 50% | AZ Alkmaar 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.84 / AZ Alkmaar 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.657 / def 1.098 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.164 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.67
AZ Alkmaar xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 19% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.66x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.16x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
19%
5.36
24%
4.13
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.50
1.67
AZ Alkmaar xG
5.36
19%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
4%
28.41
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.6 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 5W 5D 18L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 17W 4D 7L from 28 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 7W 2D 5L from 14 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.96 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 5W 5D 18L in their last 28 games (0.71 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 17W 4D 7L in their last 28 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.71 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 43%, AZ Alkmaar 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (PEC Zwolle) and 71% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 43% of games; AZ Alkmaar in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of PEC Zwolle's games and 71% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 71% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.84 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.67 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.66 / defence 1.10 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.16 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 57%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a PEC Zwolle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 29%, AZ Alkmaar 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.