NEC Nijmegen 1-4 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Vitesse at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (NEC Nijmegen) versus 1.10 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Vitesse and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 50% versus Vitesse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 40% | Vitesse 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.69 xG and Vitesse 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.060 / defence 1.084 | Vitesse attack 0.883 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.252. Data: 62 NEC Nijmegen games / 62 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 25%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Vitesse 4.00. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 80% | Vitesse 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.69 / Vitesse 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.060 / def 1.084 | Vitesse attack 0.883 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Vitesse xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 4 Vitesse.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 47% chance of winning, Vitesse a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 2W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.06x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.58
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.89
1.20
Vitesse xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.20 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 17W 22D 23L from 62 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 26L across 62 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.18 PPG, Vitesse on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 5W 14D 11L from 30 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 10W 7D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.26 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 17W 22D 23L in their last 62 games (1.18 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 21W 15D 26L in their last 62 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.97 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Vitesse won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
4
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Vitesse have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 57%, Vitesse 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (NEC Nijmegen) and 57% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 33% of games; Vitesse in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 53% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 57% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 1-4 hammering of NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat NEC Nijmegen 1-4 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.69 xG and Vitesse 1.20 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Vitesse outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Vitesse attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 25%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 40%, Vitesse 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.18 PPG, Vitesse 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.