NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 7W 2D 1L at Goffertstadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in NEC Nijmegen's favour (2.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Utrecht in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Utrecht, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Utrecht winning.
It is worth noting that Utrecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 60% and Utrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 69% | Utrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.27 xG and Utrecht 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.341 / defence 0.958 | Utrecht attack 0.861 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.435. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 NEC Nijmegen games / 55 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 19%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Utrecht 5.26. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Utrecht lead the H2H ledger, but NEC Nijmegen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.27 / Utrecht 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.341 / def 0.958 | Utrecht attack 0.861 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Utrecht xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 3 Utrecht.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 62% chance of winning, Utrecht a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
Record (9 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 2W | Draws 2 | Utrecht 5W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Utrecht (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.34x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.86x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.14
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.46
1.18
Utrecht xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
10%
9.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
2%
51.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.18 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 24W 12D 19L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 24W 16D 15L from 55 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.60 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.81 PPG from 26 outings (13W 8D 5L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 10W 10D 6L from 26 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Utrecht in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 24W 12D 19L in their last 55 games (1.53 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 24W 16D 15L in their last 55 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Utrecht away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.81 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-3 on 22 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
6
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Utrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for NEC Nijmegen, 77% for Utrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for NEC Nijmegen and 65% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 77% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 65% of Utrecht's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat NEC Nijmegen 1-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.27 xG and Utrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Utrecht outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.34 / defence 0.96 against Utrecht attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 19%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 69%, Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.53 PPG, Utrecht 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.