NEC Nijmegen 2-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 20 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 5.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 5.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.00 for NEC Nijmegen, 0.00 for PEC Zwolle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, PEC Zwolle in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.11 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.222. Data: 1 NEC Nijmegen games / 1 PEC Zwolle games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 34% | Draw 28% | PEC Zwolle 38%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | PEC Zwolle 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 34% | Draw 28% | PEC Zwolle 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.11 / PEC Zwolle 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
PEC Zwolle xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 34% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 5.00 | L5 L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (0.98) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.85x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.54
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.31
1.19
PEC Zwolle xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.19 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 0.00 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 5.00 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
NEC Nijmegen
3
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 0% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 0% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.11 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.19 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 34% | Draw 28% | PEC Zwolle 38%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 100%, PEC Zwolle 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 0.00 PPG, PEC Zwolle 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 5.00 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.