NEC Nijmegen 2-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 75% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 24 January 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.50 for PEC Zwolle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives NEC Nijmegen a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
NEC Nijmegen half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 58% versus PEC Zwolle 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 68% | PEC Zwolle 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 3.33 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.344 / defence 0.990 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.965 / defence 1.479. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.456. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 3.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.479 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 NEC Nijmegen games / 53 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 75% | Draw 13% | PEC Zwolle 12%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.33 | Draw 7.69 | PEC Zwolle 8.33. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (75%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (3.33 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 85% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 60% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 75% | Draw 13% | PEC Zwolle 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 72% | xG NEC Nijmegen 3.33 / PEC Zwolle 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.344 / def 0.990 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.965 / def 1.479 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.33
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.39
PEC Zwolle xG
72%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 75% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 12% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (7 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 4W | Draws 3 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.34) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 3.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.96x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.9%), 4-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
75%
1.34
13%
7.62
12%
8.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
4 – 1
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.33
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
4.72
1.39
PEC Zwolle xG
1.34
75%
Home win
7.62
13%
Draw
8.17
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
69%
Over 3.5
1.45
31%
Under 3.5
3.23
51%
Over 4.5
1.96
49%
Under 4.5
2.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
4%
27.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 3.33 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.39 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 4.72.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 12D 20L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.21 PPG from 53 outings (16W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.21 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 11W 8D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (4W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.28 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 21W 12D 20L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 16W 16D 21L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.64 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
NEC Nijmegen
3
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle?
From 9 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 6, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for NEC Nijmegen, 76% for PEC Zwolle — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for NEC Nijmegen and 64% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 76% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 64% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out PEC Zwolle 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 2-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 3.33 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.39 xG, a combined 4.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.34 / defence 0.99 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.96 / defence 1.48, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 75% | Draw 13% | PEC Zwolle 12%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, PEC Zwolle 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.42 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.