NEC Nijmegen 3-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host FC Volendam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.00 PPG versus FC Volendam's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, FC Volendam 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 3–0 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Volendam trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 54% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 46% | FC Volendam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.23 xG and FC Volendam 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.073 / defence 1.202 | FC Volendam attack 0.768 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.340. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 NEC Nijmegen games / 44 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 57% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 18%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 5.56. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 57% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.23 / FC Volendam 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.073 / def 1.202 | FC Volendam attack 0.768 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FC Volendam xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 57% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.04
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.47
1.24
FC Volendam xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
11%
9.31
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
2%
52.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.24 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 10W 18D 15L from 43 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 25L across 43 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.12 PPG, FC Volendam on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 5W 10D 6L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 1W 4D 16L across 21 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.19 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 10W 18D 15L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 6D 25L in their last 43 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or FC Volendam away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.19 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, FC Volendam have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEC Nijmegen at 76%, FC Volendam at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for NEC Nijmegen and 67% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 57% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 11, as NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.23 xG and FC Volendam 1.24 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against FC Volendam attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 57% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 18%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 46%, FC Volendam 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.12 PPG, FC Volendam 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.