NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Cambuur travel to Goffertstadion to take on NEC Nijmegen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 2W 7D 1L at Goffertstadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
NEC Nijmegen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 1 for Cambuur and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cambuur in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 52% versus Cambuur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 37% | Cambuur 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.48 xG and Cambuur 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.166 / defence 0.970 | Cambuur attack 0.770 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.229. Data: 54 NEC Nijmegen games / 54 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 32% | Cambuur 21%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Cambuur 4.76. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: NEC Nijmegen 90% | Cambuur 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 32% | Cambuur 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.48 / Cambuur 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.166 / def 0.970 | Cambuur attack 0.770 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cambuur xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
NEC Nijmegen 0 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 47% chance of winning, Cambuur a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
47%
2.11
32%
3.14
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.40
0.92
Cambuur xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
21.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.92 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 19D 21L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.94 PPG from 54 outings (14W 9D 31L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.13 PPG, Cambuur on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 4W 12D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (8W 6D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.19 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 14W 9D 31L in their last 54 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.92 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Cambuur have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 58%, Cambuur 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (NEC Nijmegen) and 58% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 35% of games; Cambuur in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 46% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 58% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NEC Nijmegen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Cambuur finished level at 0-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.48 xG and Cambuur 0.92 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Cambuur attack 0.77 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 32% | Cambuur 21%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 37%, Cambuur 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.13 PPG, Cambuur 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.