NEC Nijmegen 1-3 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AZ Alkmaar make the trip to Goffertstadion to face NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen at Goffertstadion this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Goffertstadion this season.
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AZ Alkmaar arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 0 for AZ Alkmaar and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 54% and AZ Alkmaar 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 46% | AZ Alkmaar 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 0.91 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.787 / defence 1.252 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.071 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.308. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 NEC Nijmegen games / 24 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 19% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 57%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | AZ Alkmaar 1.75. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: NEC Nijmegen 50% | AZ Alkmaar 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 19% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG NEC Nijmegen 0.91 / AZ Alkmaar 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.787 / def 1.252 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.071 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.75
AZ Alkmaar xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 3 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 19% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (1 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 0W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.07x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
19%
5.33
24%
4.12
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.66
1.75
AZ Alkmaar xG
5.33
19%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
3%
30.78
23%
4.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.75 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 8W 7D 9L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 15W 3D 6L from 24 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NEC Nijmegen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 1D 4L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.96 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 15W 3D 6L in their last 24 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.91 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.73 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
NEC Nijmegen
3
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 46%, AZ Alkmaar 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NEC Nijmegen) and 73% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 36% of games; AZ Alkmaar in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 73% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 73% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat NEC Nijmegen 1-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 0.91 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.75 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 19% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 57%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 46%, AZ Alkmaar 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.