NAC Breda 0-0 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and Feyenoord meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Feyenoord in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NAC Breda lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Feyenoord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 62% and Feyenoord 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 60% | Feyenoord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.29 xG and Feyenoord 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.831 / defence 1.156 | Feyenoord attack 1.226 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.357. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 NAC Breda games / 55 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 26% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 52%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Feyenoord 1.92. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | Feyenoord 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 26% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG NAC Breda 1.29 / Feyenoord 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.831 / def 1.156 | Feyenoord attack 1.226 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Feyenoord xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Feyenoord kick off?
NAC Breda vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Feyenoord?
NAC Breda 0 - 0 Feyenoord.
Where is NAC Breda vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Feyenoord part of?
NAC Breda vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 26% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both NAC Breda and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Feyenoord in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.23x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 22/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
26%
3.92
22%
4.51
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.21
1.92
Feyenoord xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
4%
26.81
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.92 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 22W 12D 21L from 55 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 6L across 55 games — 2.24 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 13W 7D 8L from 28 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 18W 7D 3L across 28 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.51 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 22W 12D 21L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 37W 12D 6L in their last 55 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.64 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.18 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Feyenoord?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 0, Feyenoord have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when NAC Breda 3-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for NAC Breda, 68% for Feyenoord — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for NAC Breda and 68% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of NAC Breda's games and 68% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of NAC Breda's matches and 68% of Feyenoord's.
Do NAC Breda and Feyenoord tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NAC Breda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as NAC Breda and Feyenoord drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.29 xG and Feyenoord 1.92 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Feyenoord landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against Feyenoord attack 1.23 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 26% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 52%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 60%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Feyenoord's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.