Heracles 0-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Feyenoord travel to Erve Asito to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 December 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Feyenoord have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Heracles, 2 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 55% versus Feyenoord 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 74% | Feyenoord 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.19 xG and Feyenoord 2.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.835 / defence 1.241 | Feyenoord attack 1.421 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.494. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — the away xG of 2.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Heracles games / 49 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 14% | Draw 19% | Feyenoord 67%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 7.14 | Draw 5.26 | Feyenoord 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 14% | Draw 19% | Feyenoord 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 66% | xG Heracles 1.19 / Feyenoord 2.63 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.835 / def 1.241 | Feyenoord attack 1.421 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.63
Feyenoord xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Feyenoord kick off?
Heracles vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Heracles 0 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is Heracles vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Feyenoord part of?
Heracles vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 14% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 67% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Feyenoord?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are Heracles and Feyenoord in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.83) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 2.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
14%
7.26
19%
5.17
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.82
2.63
Feyenoord xG
7.26
14%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
7%
13.92
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
1%
100.98
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Heracles and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Heracles and 2.63 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 49 games, going 28W 6D 15L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.39 PPG from 49 outings (36W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 17W 3D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.42 points per game from 24 outings (18W 4D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.55 scored and 0.90 conceded. Heracles's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord in 61%.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 28W 6D 15L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 36W 9D 4L in their last 49 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.25 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Heracles or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Feyenoord won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
0
Draws
8
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Feyenoord have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Feyenoord 4-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 54%, Feyenoord 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Heracles and 71% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Heracles's games and 71% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Heracles's matches and 71% of Feyenoord's.
Do Heracles and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heracles 0-4 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.19 xG and Feyenoord 2.63 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 2.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Feyenoord attack 1.42 / defence 0.84, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 14% | Draw 19% | Feyenoord 67%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 74%, Feyenoord 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Feyenoord's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.84. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.