Heracles 1-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Excelsior make the trip to Asito Stadium to face Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Asito Stadium, Heracles have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Heracles, 0.70 for Excelsior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heracles lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Excelsior — key trading statistics (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 59% versus Excelsior 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 64% | Excelsior 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.41 xG and Excelsior 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.818 / defence 1.155 | Excelsior attack 0.791 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.361. Data: 61 Heracles games / 27 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 40% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 32%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Excelsior 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 40% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Heracles 1.41 / Excelsior 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.818 / def 1.155 | Excelsior attack 0.791 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Heracles (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Excelsior xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Excelsior kick off?
Heracles vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Excelsior?
Heracles 1 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is Heracles vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Excelsior part of?
Heracles vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 40% chance of winning, Excelsior a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Heracles and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Excelsior?
Record (5 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 3W.
What form are Heracles and Excelsior in?
Heracles (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Excelsior (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.82x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.79x) against Heracles's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
40%
2.52
28%
3.54
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.65
1.24
Excelsior xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Heracles and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Heracles and 1.24 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles's recent record stands at 14W 14D 33L from 61 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 22L across 61 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 10W 9D 10L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Excelsior's away record stands at 10W 7D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.51 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 14D 33L in their last 61 games (0.92 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 27W 12D 22L in their last 61 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Excelsior away?
Heracles's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.34 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
1
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Excelsior have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Heracles 1-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Heracles, 69% for Excelsior — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Heracles and 69% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Heracles's games and 69% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Heracles's matches and 69% of Excelsior's.
Do Heracles and Excelsior tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Heracles and Excelsior drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.41 xG and Excelsior 1.24 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Excelsior attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 40% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 32%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, Excelsior 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.