Heracles 0-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Almere City FC at Asito Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Asito Stadion, Heracles have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Heracles 0.60 PPG, Almere City FC 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Heracles, 1 for Almere City FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 50% versus Almere City FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 68% | Almere City FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.66 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.861 / defence 1.133 | Almere City FC attack 0.788 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.281. Data: 38 Heracles games / 38 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 47% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Almere City FC 4.17. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Almere City FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 47% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Heracles 1.66 / Almere City FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.861 / def 1.133 | Almere City FC attack 0.788 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Heracles (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Almere City FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Almere City FC kick off?
Heracles vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Heracles 0 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Heracles vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Almere City FC part of?
Heracles vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 47% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Heracles and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Heracles and Almere City FC in?
Heracles (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.86) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.43
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.80
1.14
Almere City FC xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
5%
22.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Heracles and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Heracles and 1.14 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 9W 8D 21L from 38 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 14D 17L across 38 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 0.92 PPG, Almere City FC on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 5W 5D 8L from 18 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.92 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 9W 8D 21L in their last 38 games (0.92 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 7W 14D 17L in their last 38 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Almere City FC away?
Heracles's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.11 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Heracles won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
3
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Almere City FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Almere City FC 0-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Almere City FC?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, Almere City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Heracles) and 50% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 33% of games; Almere City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heracles's recent matches and 50% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 50% of Almere City FC's.
Do Heracles and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Heracles's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Heracles and Almere City FC drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.66 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Almere City FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Almere City FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 47% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 24%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 68%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 0.92 PPG, Almere City FC 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.