Heerenveen 1-3 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Heerenveen at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as Heerenveen welcome AZ Alkmaar to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heerenveen carry the stronger recent momentum — 3.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.61 xG and AZ Alkmaar 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.151 / defence 1.266 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.723 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 0.998. Data: 2 Heerenveen games / 1 AZ Alkmaar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 54% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 21%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 4.76. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 54% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Heerenveen 1.61 / AZ Alkmaar 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.151 / def 1.266 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.723 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.269 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
AZ Alkmaar xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heerenveen 1 - 3 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 54% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 1.15x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.02
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.53
0.91
AZ Alkmaar xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Heerenveen and 0.91 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Heerenveen are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AZ Alkmaar.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Heerenveen's scoring rate against AZ Alkmaar's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when AZ Alkmaar won 9-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Heerenveen
2
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 0% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Heerenveen's recent games and 0% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 1-3 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.61 xG and AZ Alkmaar 0.91 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.15 / defence 1.27 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 2/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 54% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 21%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a AZ Alkmaar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 100%, AZ Alkmaar 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with AZ Alkmaar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.