Groningen 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Groningen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as Groningen welcome Waalwijk to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 1W 3D 1L at Euroborg — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Groningen at 0.70 PPG versus Waalwijk's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 54% versus Waalwijk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 46% | Waalwijk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.19 xG and Waalwijk 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.721 / defence 0.853 | Waalwijk attack 0.905 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.388. Groningen's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Groningen games / 11 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 33%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Waalwijk 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Groningen 40% | Waalwijk 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Groningen 1.19 / Waalwijk 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.721 / def 0.853 | Waalwijk attack 0.905 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Groningen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Waalwijk xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Waalwijk kick off?
Groningen vs Waalwijk kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Groningen 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Groningen vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Waalwijk part of?
Groningen vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 39% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Groningen and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and Waalwijk in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.50
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.26
1.07
Waalwijk xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Groningen and 1.07 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 4D 5L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 0.91 PPG, Waalwijk on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Waalwijk away?
Groningen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.20 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Groningen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Groningen won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, Waalwijk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Groningen 6-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 40%, Waalwijk 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Groningen) and 80% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Groningen's games and 80% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Groningen's recent games and 80% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 12, as Groningen and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.19 xG and Waalwijk 1.07 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.72 / defence 0.85 against Waalwijk attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 33%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 46%, Waalwijk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.91 PPG, Waalwijk 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.