Groningen 0-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 44%, yet in-form Vitesse provide a compelling counter-argument — this Groningen vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Vitesse are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Vitesse in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Groningen lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 66% and Vitesse 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 50% | Vitesse 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.54 xG and Vitesse 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.853 / defence 1.030 | Vitesse attack 0.857 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.433. Data: 38 Groningen games / 38 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 44% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 31%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Vitesse 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitesse (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Vitesse 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 44% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Groningen 1.54 / Vitesse 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.853 / def 1.030 | Vitesse attack 0.857 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Groningen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vitesse xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Vitesse kick off?
Groningen vs Vitesse kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Vitesse?
Groningen 0 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Groningen vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Vitesse part of?
Groningen vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 44% chance of winning, Vitesse a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Groningen and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Vitesse?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Groningen and Vitesse in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Groningen's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.86x) against Groningen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.00
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.80
1.26
Vitesse xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Groningen and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Groningen and 1.26 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen's recent record stands at 10W 11D 17L from 38 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 16L across 38 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Groningen against 1.37 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 3D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.34 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Vitesse in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 15W 7D 16L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.18 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Vitesse go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitesse won 6-0 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Vitesse have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Vitesse 6-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 59%, Vitesse 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Groningen) and 59% (Vitesse).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Groningen's games and 59% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Groningen's recent games and 59% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Vitesse tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.54 xG and Vitesse 1.26 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Vitesse attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 44% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 31%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 50%, Vitesse 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.08 PPG, Vitesse 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.