Groningen 0-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse (all games): 2W 0D 3L across 5 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Groningen, 1.20 for Vitesse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 80% and Vitesse 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Groningen 60% | Vitesse 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.20 xG and Vitesse 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.797 / defence 0.963 | Vitesse attack 0.797 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.424. Groningen's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Groningen games / 5 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 33%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Vitesse 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 80% | Vitesse 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Groningen 1.20 / Vitesse 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.797 / def 0.963 | Vitesse attack 0.797 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Vitesse xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Vitesse kick off?
Groningen vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Vitesse?
Groningen 0 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Groningen vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Vitesse part of?
Groningen vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 38% chance of winning, Vitesse a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Groningen and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and Vitesse in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Vitesse (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Groningen's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.80x) against Groningen's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.52
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.29
1.09
Vitesse xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Groningen and 1.09 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen's recent record stands at 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 3L across 5 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Groningen against 1.20 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Vitesse go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitesse won 6-0 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Vitesse have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Vitesse 6-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 80%, Vitesse 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Groningen and 80% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Groningen's games and 40% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Groningen's matches and 80% of Vitesse's.
Do Groningen and Vitesse tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.20 xG and Vitesse 1.09 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Vitesse attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 38% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 33%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 60%, Vitesse 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.00 PPG, Vitesse 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.